Max Entropy & The Avalanche: A Cautionary Tale of Relying Solely on Forecasts

Max Entropy & the Avalanche is a cautionary-but joyful-tale of statistics, chaos, and real-world risk. Perfect for curious kids, contrarians, parents who are bored of basic bedtime stories, and anyone who's ever wondered what happens when the world doesn't follow the model, this rhyming little book belongs on every bookshelf.

Meet Max Entropy, a boy who knows that the world is full of surprises-and that reality doesn't always match our predictions. When his friend Predict Shaun insists a snow day is coming (because his model says so), Max looks out the window and sees something very different: Sunshine... and danger on the peaks. As an avalanche threatens their town, Max's resilience and quick thinking save the day, showing that real-world risk is about more than just statistics and forecasts.

• Teaches Critical Thinking: Inspired by the ideas of Nassim Taleb, this story introduces children to the limits of prediction, the importance of questioning assumptions, and the reality of chaos in everyday life.
• STEM & Beyond: An engaging way to introduce concepts like uncertainty, probability, and model error-ideal for sparking conversations about statistics, risk, and resilience.
• For All Ages: Kids will love the adventure and vibrant illustrations, while adults will appreciate the subtle nods to statistical thinking, chaos theory, and the challenges of real-world decision-making.
• Gift-Worthy: Makes a unique, thoughtful gift for children, parents, teachers, black swans, white swans, grad students or professionals in statistics or data science, or anyone who finds themselves on Taleb Twitter.
• Classroom & Family Friendly: Perfect for STEM lessons, storytime, or as a conversation starter about how we make decisions in a world full of surprises.

Trust the Experts: What Readers Are Saying

"Completely clever and charming. Max Entropy and Predict Shaun are fantastic teachers, and what an adventure! It is forecasting told in a witty, insightful and enjoyable way."

"Beautifully illustrated, fluent and very witty poems."

"The story has a happy ending. But along the way it reminds both kids and grown-ups to be ready for surprises, and to take precautions when facing uncertainty."

"[This] kind of visual storytelling is rare and makes this book super effective for kids (and honestly, for adults too)"

Max Entropy & the Avalanche is the perfect children's book for anyone interested in statistics, chaos, uncertainty, or prediction. It's a delightful, educational story that bridges the gap between STEM learning and everyday wisdom-making it a standout gift for grad students, data enthusiasts, and curious minds of all ages. And, yes, this paragraph is just in here for SEO.